SINGAPORE - Public and private property prices grew at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2025 due to an increase in housing supply in bothmarkets, coupled with a slowdown in resale flat volumes andoverall privatehome transaction volumes.
Amid stable demand for both housing types in the first quarter, analysts warn of downside risks ahead due to rising macroeconomic uncertainty.
Following a bull run of 20 straight quarters, Housing Board resale prices grew 1.6 per cent in the first quarter – the slowest growth recorded since the fourth quarter of 2023 at 1.1 per cent. In comparison, prices in the third and fourth quarters of 2024 grew 2.7 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively.
On the private housing front, the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) overall private home price index grew at a slower pace of 0.8 per cent in the first quarter, beating flash estimates of 0.6 per cent. Growth was far below a 2.3 per cent gain in the previous quarter, as the price momentum for non-landed properties eased across all market segments.
With some price resistance setting in, the number of HDB estates registering quarterly price growth dipped to 19 in the first quarter, from 20 in the fourth quarter. Over the same period, those seeing a quarterly price drop rose to seven from six, according to OrangeTee Group.
Total resale flat volume gained 2.6 per cent to 6,590units in the first quarter of 2025, from 6,424 units sold in the fourth quarter of 2024. But year on year, it fell 6.8 per cent from 7,068units in the first quarter of 2024. This is the lowest first-quarter volume since the first quarter of 2020, when 5,893 units were transacted.
OrangeTee’s chief researcher and strategistChristineSun noted that the resale flat market faced intense competition from the Build-To-Order (BTO)market, as HDB launched more than 10,000 new flats during the BTO and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) sales exercises in February 2025.
Amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty, resale flat demand may hold steady if job security and household income growth continue, and as private home owners downsize to resale flats and budget-conscious buyers upgrade within the HDB sector, she said.
ERA Singapore key executive Eugene Lim expects a rebound in resale flat transactions in the second quarter as unsuccessful BTO applicants return to the resale market. “But others may wait for the upcoming BTO and SBF sales launches in July, where buyers can expect (launches in) popular locations like Clementi, Tampines and Toa Payoh,” he added.
Meanwhile, prices in the landed private property segment stabilised, gaining 0.4 per cent in the first quarter, compared with a 0.1 per cent drop in the previous quarter.
Non-landed properties gained 1 per cent, compared with a 3 per cent rise in the fourth quarter. All three sub-markets saw slower price gains – the city fringe led with a growth of 1.7 per cent quarter on quarter, followed by the prime district with a 0.8 per cent gain and the suburbs with a 0.3 per cent increase.
For the first quarter, developers moved 3,375 new private homes, excluding executive condominiums (ECs), down 1.3 per cent from 3,420 units transacted in the previous quarter.
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Thanks to new launches Parktown Residence in Tampines, Lentor Central Residences, and Elta in Clementi, the suburbs accounted for the bulk of the total volume, with 2,238 units sold, marking the highest quarterly sales in the sub-market in more than a decade.
PropNex chief executive IsmailGafoor noted that there was overwhelming interest in the EC segment, with the 760-unit Aurelle of Tampines selling out within a month of its March launch. “The increase in the supply of EC sites under the Government Land Sales programme will cater to healthy EC demand for such homes and help keep prices stable,” he said.
According to theURA, 3,139 uncompletedprivatehomes were launched for sale in the first quarter, compared with 3,425 units in the previous quarter.
The resale market recorded3,565 transactions in the first quarter, a 3.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter drop due to a surge innewproject launches.
“Since late 2024, the new home market’s share of total transactions has grown, standing at 27.5 per cent in first quarter 2024 before rising to 46.5 per cent in first quarter of 2025,” said Mr Marcus Chu, CEO of ERA Singapore.
The overall private home leasing market grew by 0.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 after remaining unchanged in the previous quarter. But analysts warned that demand may be affected should businesses refrain from expanding their operations, increase headcount or cut accommodation benefits for expatriates because of fallout from the trade war.
It was a slightly different story in the resale flat leasing market, as demand jumped in the first quarter with 9,662 rental approvals by HDB – the strongest quarterly figure in five quarters. This is up 12.3 per cent from 8,603 approvals in the fourth quarter.
“Healthy rental demand from families waiting for their new homes to be completed, as well as foreign workers and international students, coupled with the limited stock of MOP (minimum occupation period) flats, could potentially support HDB rentals in 2025,” PropNexhead of research and contentWongSiewYing said.
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